As can be seen from the adjacent chart, after a sharp fall MCX crude oil was trading near the 78.6% retracement mark. It made multiple attempts to break 4600. However,
bulls provided strong support to the oil. Consequently, the oil bounced towards the upper end of the range as well as the 20-weekly moving average and the 40-weekly
exponential moving average. The pressure was building up as the price was approaching the resistance zone. Thus, the oil has fallen back towards the 20-daily moving average
and the 40-daily exponential moving average. The daily momentum indicator has given a fresh sell signal. Once the swing low of 4780 is broken, the oil will be set to fall
towards the lower end of the range, ie 4600. The reversal can be trailed to 4932.
